4 Blockbuster Movies We're Convinced Can Break $1 Billion in 2026
Four films are expected to cross the $1 billion mark in 2026, building on the success of four movies that achieved this feat in 2025. While some films like 'Ne Zha 2' and 'Lilo & Stitch' dominated overseas, others like 'Zootopia 2' and 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' were hits both domestically and internationally. This trend suggests that 2026 might see a similar outcome.
However, we're not ruling out the possibility of a fifth blockbuster. Movies like 'Oppenheimer' and 'The Odyssey' directed by Christopher Nolan, have the potential to reach this milestone. But for now, we're focusing on the four most likely candidates.
Let's explore these four films and their chances of breaking the billion-dollar barrier.
- The Mandalorian & Grogu
Disney's decision to invest heavily in a new Star Wars adventure, despite the failure of 'Solo: A Star Wars Story,' is intriguing. The Mandalorian series has a dedicated fan base, but its popularity peaked in the first two seasons (2019-2020). The third season, released after a three-year gap, received less positive feedback. The upcoming 'The Mandalorian & Grogu' series might face a similar decline in popularity. While the trailer generates excitement, it doesn't evoke the same sense of anticipation as previous releases.
Chance of crossing $1 billion: 60%
- Toy Story 5
Comparing the Toy Story films' box office success is challenging due to re-releases and inflation adjustments. However, a trend emerges when considering the adjusted worldwide gross. The first film, adjusted for inflation, would be around $767 million, while Toy Story 2 would be $961 million, and Toy Story 3 would reach $1.576 billion. Toy Story 4, despite being massive, raised questions about the need for a fourth installment. Toy Story 5 might follow a similar pattern, but it's unlikely to reach the billion-dollar mark. The question remains whether the drop in popularity will be significant enough to prevent it from achieving this milestone.
Chance of crossing $1 billion: 75%
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day
The MCU's financial stability has diminished, and even a solid 'Fantastic Four' movie didn't guarantee success. However, Tom Holland's Spider-Man remains incredibly popular. 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' aims to reset the series after 'No Way Home,' and there's strong belief that it will cross the $1 billion threshold. While it might not reach the heights of 'No Way Home,' it's expected to perform well, closer to 'Spider-Man: Far from Home.'
Chance of crossing $1 billion: 85%
- Avengers: Doomsday
Despite the MCU's financial uncertainties, 'Avengers: Doomsday' is poised to be a blockbuster. Robert Downey Jr.'s return, albeit in a different role, is a significant draw. The film's budget, reportedly over $600 million, raises questions about its profitability. However, its status as the winter movie season's top event and its impact on the MCU's future make it a strong contender to surpass the billion-dollar mark.
Chance of crossing $1 billion: 100%
